How does Joshua Zirkzee compare to Rasmus Hojlund and the best strikers in Serie A
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Following an abysmal season that was somewhat salvaged by a surprise FA Cup victory over city rivals Manchester City, United were very quick spenders in the 2024 summer transfer market. While the arrival of much-sought teenage sensation Leny Yoro and fan-favourite Mathias De Ligt was the cynosure of all eyes, the acquisition of 2023/24 Serie A Under-23 Player of the Year Joshua Zirkzee was possibly the most significant purchase of the summer window.
After the uninspiring debut campaign of Rasmus Hojlund, a player who viewed cross-city striker Erling Haaland as more of an idol than a rival, 23-year-old Zirkzee was perceived as a much-needed injection into a sickly United frontline.
The Red Devils were the only one of the big six clubs to register less than 70 goals, with their 57 total scored on the same level as perennial mid-table teams like Crystal Palace and Brentford.
But after just three months in England, the marriage between Zirkzee and Manchester United is turning sour, with the Dutchman faring so badly that rumours swirling that the management at Old Trafford are already furnishing plans to ship him out on loan in January.
With 11 goals in Serie A—a league ranked lower in UEFA coefficients—just one more than Rasmus Hojlund, can Zirkzee really impact United's attacking issues? Was he ever an improvement over their current striking options?
This article evaluates Zirkzee's attributes in comparison to Serie A strikers and his new Manchester United teammates.
The comparison is limited to players with at least 20 appearances and over 1,000 minutes of game time.
Goalscoring and forward play
Manchester United placed 9th on the goalscoring charts in the 2023/24 campaign with 57 goals, almost two times less than their city rivals over at the Etihad. This ineptitude to find the back of the net was largely responsible for the club's poor 8th place finish, their worst ever placement in the Premier League era.
This dilemma was so ingrained that top scorers Bruno and Hojlund managed only 10 goals apiece, the only United players on double digits for goals in the Premier League.
In what looks like a switch from headache to migraine, Joshua Zirkzee numbers from last season suggest he is more likely to exacerbate than solve this problem. The Netherlands international managed only 11 goals in 32 games, a frequency of 0.4 per game, which is extremely inadequate for any striker.
This rate was two times less than Serie A top scorer Lautaro Martínez, who accrued even less playing time than the former Bologna talisman. Zirkzee's numbers are also no different from Hojlund's, which suggests the former Bologna man is on paper no upgrade to his Danish counterpart.
While Rasmus had an expected goals (xG) of 8.32, Zirkzee's was 8.93, which is significantly lower compared to Lautaro Martínez (18.78), Dusan Vlahović (18.01), and Victor Osimhen (16.85). However, analyzing Zirkzee's limited goalmouth presence shifts much of the blame away from Bologna and instead points to a more reserved playing style adopted by the Dutch international.
Joshua attempts 2.8 shots per game, which, while decent, pales in comparison to the league's top scorers—Martínez (3.6), Vlahović (4.3), and Osimhen (4.1).
Despite his low shooting rate, the value of Zirkzee's shots stands at 0.1 xG per shot, meaning each attempt has a 10% chance of resulting in a goal. Not only is this worse than Højlund, whose shots have a 22% chance of scoring, but it is also among the worst probabilities in Serie A for strikers.
The top striker in this metric was Ciro Immobile (23%), who attempted almost half as many shots as Zirkzee but still outperformed the Dutchman in expected goals. Immobile's goal tally of 7 was expected to be on par with Zirkzee's, based on the chances he had, but his inconsistency in finishing ranked him among Serie A's most wasteful players.
Ball playing skills and on-the-ball brilliance
One attribute of Zirkzee that has been much touted by football experts, analysts, and those within the industry is his technical genius.
Former Parma teammate Simeone Iacoponi lauded his “important qualities” as superior to football legend Zlatan Ibrahimovic.
“The comparison with Ibrahimovic? The comparison can be made due to their size and their movements, but Joshua is much more technical than Ibra, who was stronger,” said the Italian professional footballer.
In this aspect, the Dutchman displays top-tier technique by attempting 0.8 shots every game from outside the box, the 3rd highest among strikers in Serie A behind Gianluca Scamanca (1.2) and Dusan Vlahovic (1).
For context, the only players to outgun Zirkzee in this aspect at Manchester United in the just concluded season are Bruno Fernandes (1.7) and Antony (1.6).
However, this attribute is only manifesting because Zirkzee favours dropping deeper more often than is usual for a centre forward.
The striker gets possession in the defensive third of the pitch far more times than other strikers in the league. When compared to Serie A's top 5 scorers, Zirkzee's average touches in this area (4.4) of the field of play surpass Martínez (2.98), Vlahovic (2.46), Osimhen (1.36), Giroud (2.62), and Lukaku (2.01).
A Premier League striker of recent memory best attributed with this style of play was Harry Kane, who even in the prime of his career at Tottenham only mustered a maximum of 3.82 touches in the defensive third of the pitch (3.82).
Although he falls significantly short in terms of goalscoring, this penchant to drop very deep into his own half explains Zirkzee's success as a playmking genius in a defence-focused Bologna side. He created 11 big chances in the just concluded season, the most of any centre forward in the Italian league.
When shoehorned into a Manchester United side who had only one big chance creator in double figures in Bruno Fernandes (21), Zirkzee automatically becomes one of the team's most creative players.
His average per game key passes of 1.4 posits him 4th among strikers in the Italian league and also. 4th in the Manchester United team of. 2023/24.
Additionally, his assist haul of four is only bettered at United by Bruno Fernandes and ranks him in the Top 10 among strikers in the Serie A (per game).
Also, when in possession, Zirkzee possesses nifty feet, uncharacteristic of a centre forward. No other striker in the Serie A completed more dribbles on average than the former Bologna man, with his 1.7 dribbles per game, some step-overs ahead of Salernitana's Chukwubuikem Ikwuemesi (1.4). These numbers match up fittingly with Marcus Rashford (1.9), Antony (1.8), and Alejandro Garnacho (1.7), Manchester's leaders in this metric.
In fact, Zirkzee last season completed the 6th most dribbles in the Serie A (52), a tally good enough to better any player at Manchester United.
Conclusion
Strengths | Weaknesses | |
|---|---|---|
Technical Ability | Inadequate Goal Scoring Rate | |
Playmaking Skills | Low Conversion Rate | |
Versatility | Limited Aerial Effectiveness | |
Ball Control and Movement | Inconsistent Finishing | |
Dribbling and Chance Creation | Over-Reliance on Technical Skills |
Strengths | Weaknesses | |
|---|---|---|
Technical Ability | Inadequate Goal Scoring Rate | |
Playmaking Skills | Low Conversion Rate | |
Versatility | Limited Aerial Effectiveness | |
Ball Control and Movement | Inconsistent Finishing | |
Dribbling and Chance Creation | Over-Reliance on Technical Skills |
Given that Zirkzee has only had two seasons with double-digit goals scored, Manchester United's £42.5 million acquisition is a complicated action that calls for caution.
With 11 goals in 32 games, the Dutchman's goal-scoring record from his tenure in Bologna in Serie A is not particularly outstanding. Zirkzee's figure just marginally surpasses Rasmus Hojlund's total from the previous season at United; thus, it's not clear if he would help United's goal-scoring woes straight away.
His goal-scoring rate is much lower than that of elite Serie A forwards like Lautaro Martínez and Dusan Vlahovic, who score goals more regularly. His expected goals metric is even lower than that of the league's top strikers, which emphasises even more his difficulties converting chances into goals.
Despite his 1.93 m full body length, which was predicted to be key in solving United's aerial duels' deficiencies, Zirkzee's statistics are very poor in yet another area where he was supposed to exert influence.
Taking into account United's struggles with set-piece execution, Joshua Zirkzee's career goal-scoring record from headers raises questions.
Amidst the doom and gloom, Zirkzee's technicality and playfulness really shine through. He possesses very exceptional dribbling, which was among the finest in Italy's top flight.
His creativity is also equally remarkable, as he created eleven big chances last season, the most Serie A strikers.
His tendency to drop deeper into his defensive half than other top scorers in Serie A, such as Lautaro Martínez and Victor Osimhen, as well as the fact that he gets more touches on average further highlight his unique playing approach.
Because of his inclination to play deeper—reminiscent of peak Harry Kane's style of play—Zirkzee is able to engage more in building play.
With his ability to take on defenders, his vision, and his capacity to create opportunities, Zirkzee can offer more than simply goal-scoring and is a great addition to United's attacking dynamism. This enables him to cover the hole left by other creative players of United.
Should Zirkzee master Ten Hag's mysterious tactical philosophy, his transfer will be an absolute triumph; however, United will definitely only worsen their goal-scoring issues if they cannot properly exploit his skills.
This is despite the fact that his ball control and inventiveness could improve the offensive lineup by balancing the playmaking capacity of players like Bruno Fernandes.
In the end, Joshua Zirkzee's acquisition by Manchester United is a measured risk. Though his goal-scoring numbers don't always show he is a game-changing acquisition, United may have fixed some of their attacking issues from the previous season with his technical ability and playmaking skills.
With his deep-lying position and creative skills, he could cover the vacuum left by other playmakers and offer more choices to match United's aggressive setup. Still, his subpar goal-scoring efficiency and lack of aerial prowess present him as a round peg in the square peg that his United.