Analysising the benefits and risks of a potential Victor Osimhen transfer to Manchester United
According to several sources, including the very credible Fabrizio Romano, Manchester United has allegedly developed specific plans to activate Osimhen's release clause and sign the player in the summer. This doubles as a transfer that could either be the most important building component of the post-Ferguson era or another expensive error under the INEOS-fronted Glazer family's management.
As well as a tactical reinforcement for a club still in the process of developing its identity, the purchase of the Nigerian forward is the definitive test of the club's ideology, cultural transformation, and risk tolerance.
Manchester United's eighth-place finish in the 23–24 Premier League (record-low) highlights their structural flaws in their attacking end and was best exemplified by Hojlund's unrealised potential (10 goals), Rashford's inconsistent efficiency (scored in only 10 of 33 matches), and excessive reliance on Bruno Fernandes (most goals and most assists).
Apart from his efficient performance of 16 goals in his first 19 league games for Galatasaray, Osimhen's record of 26 goals for Napoli during the 22–23 Serie A season seems to be the "saviour template" Old Trafford has been yearning for.
However, with Manchester United's striker conundrum looming like a black hole since the end of the Ferguson era, swallowing several talents such as Falcao, Lukaku, Martial, and Hojlund, can the '23 African Footballer of the Year break this cycle, or will he turn into yet another expensive tombstone at Old Trafford?
Examining the twin consequences for both club and the player, this paper will present a thorough study of a potential Victor Osimhen transfer to Manchester United.
Why Manchester United signing Osimhen is a good move for the club
A cheap world-class striker
Since Robin Van Persie guided the club to Premier League glory with 26 goals in the 2012-13 season, Manchester United have not had a truly dominant striker. While the brief brilliance of Lukaku (16 goals in the 17–18 season), the late redemption of Ibrahimović (17 goals in the 16–17 season), and the divisive second coming of Cristiano Ronaldo (18 goals in the 21–22 season) were merely stopgap measures, the failures of expensive acquisitions like Martial and Falcao have become a microcosm of the club's turbulent decision-making.
Signing Osimhen, who combines the mobility of a modern all-around striker with the aerial menace of a classic targetman for a reduced fee of €75 million, is a bargain that could completely change this.
His characteristics could completely activate Manchester United's underused aerial resources as their accurate crosses into the penalty area were the second lowest in the league in '23–24, trailing only Sheffield United, due to the lack of a recognised target man.
However, Osimhen's main contribution will be the provision of space for wingers like Garnacho and Amad, which is especially crucial since a system like Ruben Amorim's three-at-the-back with marauding fullbacks is rendered entirely useless without a central number 9.
Salah, Haaland response (Northwest, Manchester Derby)
Once labelled "noisy neighbours," Manchester City have lately established their supremacy in the Premier League with Erling Haaland at the forefront of this hegemony, and Manchester United need a symbolic figure who can challenge him with urgency.
In ‘22, apart from the embarrassing 6-3 scoreline, the anger of Manchester United supporters after Haaland's exuberant celebration following a record hat trick, resulted from the fact that their fierce City rivals have a generational defining super striker and they don't.
A possible battle between Osimhen and Haaland, with their identical confrontational attitude, will not only focus on the competitive result but also has the potential to change Manchester football's narrative going forward.
United signing Osimhen will drastically change the power dynamics of the Manchester Derby since his physicality, aggressiveness, combative temperament, and explosiveness are enough to directly challenge Haaland's.
Across the country, Victor’s 2023 African Footballer of the Year recognition is similarly expected to spark a global debate on the "best African forward in the Premier League" whenever he faces Salah in the Northwest derby against rivals Liverpool.
As well as giving more storyline and thus revenue to these fixtures, these personal conflicts could deflect the public focus from the upheaval inside Manchester United's management, therefore freeing valuable time for the club's attempts at recovery.
Tactical fit
A centre forward who can act as both a pivot and a finisher is absolutely crucial for Ruben Amorim’s 3-4-3 high-press system. This scenario emphasises Osimhen's tactical worth since his unique skills will ensure that United maintain a focal point of possession in the attacking third, while his instantaneous explosiveness penalises any indecisiveness on the side of defenders.
Therefore, Osimhen's dual skill is a perfect complement to the "high-risk, high-reward" style of passers like Bruno Fernandes, and his runs/movements will be the most effective counter-weapon to the Portuguese midfielder's line-splitting creativity..
Why Manchester United signing Osimhen is a good move for the player
Create African legacy at Old Trafford
Unlike Arsenal with Nwankwo Kanu and Chelsea with Didier Drogba, Manchester United has never had an African player lead the line at Old Trafford. The closest the Red Devils have come is Ighalo's fleeting stay with the club, which was more of a red carpet of cameos than a full-on feature.
Although about 60% of Nigeria's 210 million population watch the Premier League, the native players of the continent have almost never found success at United. This disparity offers Osimhen a unique chance to not only make a name for himself in the annals of Premier League history but also create a road for the next generation of African players to follow in terms of legacy.
This makes a transfer to United the most gold-plated chance of Premier League football available to the Nigerian.
A saviour at the biggest club in England
For Osimhen, Manchester United's invitation is an appealing "Faustian bargain" since it is the stage with the most global exposure.
Should he be successful, he will be able to rank among the venerable Van Nistelrooy and Cantona.
Should he fail, he will be labelled as "another Lukaku," but the risk comes with a great opportunity: Manchester United's trophy drought (which has not produced a major title since the 2017 Europa League) presents the perfect script for a "saviour narrative."
Choosing the Red Devils means embracing the most seductive challenge in the realm of football: resurrecting a fallen giant.
In the same manner that Cantona's transfer in 1992 not only produced trophies but also changed the club's culture, Osimhen achieving glory at Manchester United would have more historical relevance than at the already established Arsenal or even Chelsea.
A system with no tactical restrictions
For Osimhen, Manchester United's tactical structure's lack of fluidity and its erratic performance in previous years could possibly be advantages. Unlike his time at Napoli, where he had to follow Spalletti's system to the letter, United will give him more freedom in front of goal, an environment that might inspire a talent for creativity.
This is a breath of fresh air distant from Arsenal's desperation for a ball-playing striker or Enzo Maresca’s strict guideline that his team, including the goalkeeper, religiously avoid long passes.
More importantly, Bruno Fernandes's "gamble-style passing," which averaged 3.3 key passes per game in the '23–24 season—the most in the league—in tandem with Osimhen's sprinting instincts might create a unique synergy that could become a lethal weapon against any opponent.
Grandest exposure and commercial platform
Representing the "Theatre of Dreams," Old Trafford is still the most powerful personal brand amplifier available in the football scene. Manchester United's global fan base of 659 million ('23 Kantar estimates) gives Osimhen unmatched visibility despite the team's current stagnation.
Every highlight reel of his extraordinary goals will thus be spread exponentially on social media, and every post-match interview will be translated into 12 languages, a degree of attention that both London teams may not be able to match.
Meet wage demands, less distractions in Manchester
Despite INEOS's recent obsession with cost-cutting strategies, Manchester United seems to be the most suited to meet Osimhen's high wage demands thanks to the club's capacity for generating revenue which still ranks among the top three globally.
Agreement on wages is the most crucial paperwork for any club to finalise a deal with the Nigerian, who has unequivocally reiterated that interested parties match his Napoli salary, a stance which resulted in the move to Chelsea falling through. Still, it's important to recognise that Osimhen's present pay at Napoli is equivalent to the current salary of United's top earners, Marcus Rashford and Casemiro.
Additionally, for a player who is known for his flamboyance on social media, Manchester's rather closed football culture, in contrast to the media storm in London, which is home to the headquarters of some of Britain's biggest tabloids, and the fast-paced city life can provide him a refuge to concentrate on football.
Why Manchester United signing Osimhen is a bad move for the club
Lose four first-teamers to mid-season AFCON
The ‘25 mid-season Africa Cup of Nations schedule may just be the "Achilles' heel" to Manchester United's campaign if they sign Osimhen.
In addition to Osimhen (Nigeria), the team could concurrently lose Amad (Ivory Coast), Onana (Cameroon), and Mazraoui (Morocco) for a six-week period in what could potentially be the abrupt evaporation of the entire central axis.
Given the squad's thinness in both depth and injuries, the damaging effect of this personnel loss could be compounded by the likelihood that these players could return tired or injured.
Another failed expensive flop?
Manchester United has long been a "black hole" for expensive forwards under the Glazer family. From Di Maria to Sancho, from Lukaku to Hojlund, from Martial to Antony, these gifted attackers seem to inevitably run across some kind of "curse" at the Carrington training ground.
The instability of the medical team (a 37% increase in muscle injuries over the past five years); the disconnection between the club management and the scouting department, which resulted in the farce of missing out on Kane in ‘23; and the chaotic distribution of power in the dressing room (captain's armband changing hands four times in three seasons) are all contributing factors to the systemic decline that Osimhen will encounter.
Any individual effort would be useless given this institutional anarchy, rendering any big-money signing a potential white elephant project.
Why Manchester United signing Osimhen is a bad move for the player
Apart from Antonio Valencia, Park Ji-Sung and Andre Onana, the adaptation process of non-European players in Manchester United's past has been marked by difficulties. Players like Eric Bailey and Quinton Fortune showed great promise but never established themselves, with the latter missing out on multiple Premier League medals due to his irrevocable status as a squad player. This paints a crimson-red flag for Osimhen.
Additionally, the avarice of the English media could have a big impact on Osimhen's career. From calling out his national team manager on a live stream to the TikTok conflict with Napoli, coming under the scrutiny of one of the most watched teams in the world would be a dramatic departure from the generally forgiving public opinion environment in Italy for a volatile player with a history of conflicts.
Given Manchester United has the most football players who have moved into a career as pundits in England, Osimhen would be subjected to an unparalleled psychological test, as demonstrated by Paul Pogba, who was put under public trial by personalities like Graeme Souness, Roy Keane, Gary Neville, Jamie Carragher, and Paul Scholes who examined every technical element of his performances.
This demanding setting could either accelerate the transition to a superstar or damage a delicate psyche.
Summary: Is Manchester United signing Osimhen a good or bad move for both club and player?
Thinking back on Manchester United's history of rebirth, it is clear that high-stakes gambles have always followed success, as shown by the era-defining purchase of Cantona in 1992 and the birth of the Ronaldo-Rooney duo in 2006. Osimhen's move will now be the ultimate test for the Jim Ratcliffe era.
From a positive standpoint, the physical attributes and goal-scoring efficiency of Victor Osimhen are exactly the "box tyrant" archetype missing from the Red Devils since the Ferguson period.
Given the anarchy in the club's forward line since the Scottish legend's retirement despite the club having purchased nine strikers in over ten years, Osimhen's 26 goals in the '22-23 Serie A season should help to solve the long-standing firepower shortfall.
While his aerial supremacy (33 per cent of header goals) and ability to play with his back to goal will immediately trigger the impact of Rashford's and Garnacho's fronts from the flanks, Osimhen's "big game mentality" has the potential to reinvigorate Manchester United's long-lost winning attitude.
This mental boost could undo the team's recent "collapsing under pressure" pattern, especially in demanding games against the top six.
But the unsettled environment of Manchester United greatly increases the danger associated with this deal.
Management instability and coaching changes with Amorim yet to adapt to the Premier League could throw Osimhen into a tactical mess.
Moreover, with both of United's top-paid players, Rashford and Casemiro, no longer in demand, the club's pay plan is almost unsustainable. Offering Osimhen over £250,000 would thus be a major risk considering the difficulties in moving players on hefty wages.
The influence of the Africa Cup of Nations is also significant, as the loss of Osimhen, Amad, Onana, and Mazraoui concurrently in December '25 could cause the core axis to collapse and compromise United's chances of finishing in the top four.
For Osimhen, transferring now to Manchester United begs a soul-searching dilemma: choose the Champions League steadiness of Arsenal or embrace the dangerous appeal of Old Trafford?
Manchester United presents a "redemption legendary" storyline and historical exposure for the Nigerian. The global reach (659 million supporters) and possibility to be the "flag bearer of the post-Ferguson renaissance" and break the 13-year title drought is an opportunity unmatched by Chelsea or Arsenal.
Should he be able to lead Manchester United to a league title, Osimhen's reputation will surpass the brief grandeur of the Cantona era. Moreover, Manchester's rather low-key social scene gives him some space to focus, unlike in London.
On the blindside, Manchester United is meshed in a decadent quagmire that even the legendary Cristiano Ronaldo couldn't remedy. If the team keeps missing out on the Champions League (not qualifying for the '24–25 season), the prime of Osimhen's career may be wasted in mid-table struggles.
More importantly, Old Trafford's transformation into a "black hole" for strikers over the past ten years indicates that the club's systematic flaws can overshadow even the brightest individual talents.
Final verdict: A hit or miss move
For both the player and the team, Manchester United's potential signing of Osimhen is akin to a "high-risk, high-reward" gamble. Although his personal capacity can momentarily hide systematic flaws, the financial restrictions and management anarchy of the club could make this deal a lose-lose scenario.
The tactical philosophy of new coach Amorim not yet being ascertained, as well as the conflicts among the club management may impact team building.
Unless new owner Ratcliffe can concurrently apply management changes and greatly strengthen the squad in tandem with this signing, Osimhen's arrival is more likely to reflect the Sanchez tragedy than to spark a rebirth.