Osimhen vs Haaland vs Kane vs Isak vs Vlahovic vs Martínez - Elite striker?
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With accolades including Serie A Footballer of the Year, African Footballer of the Year, Capocannoniere, and top scorer in AFCON qualifiers, Osimhen rode the waves of a stratospheric ascent to become the uncontested monarch of African football in 2023.
A first Scudetto since 1990 was a feat that Napoli hadn't managed since the days of Diego Maradona, and the golden boy of Nigerian football was the driving force that pushed Napoli to this milestone.
Osimhen emerged as the new face of the club with electric performances to lead the Azzurri to glory, notwithstanding the fact that he was born only 8 years after Napoli's last triumph.
Long before his exploits in Italy, Osimhen's journey to stardom began at the 2015 FIFA U-17 World Cup, where, under the leadership of Kelechi Nwakali, he won the Silver Ball and finished as the tournament's top scorer, propelling Nigeria to victory.
With obvious goal-scoring prowess from a young age, it was only a matter of time before he took the global stage by storm, and today Osimhen stands as the highest-scoring African in Serie A history as well as joint-third in the all-time goal-scoring list for the Nigerian national team.
However, Osimhen's stock has taken a hit since the highs of a sensational 26-goal 2022/23 season, scoring just 15 goals in the subsequent year.
Doubts about his consistency and a protracted transfer saga have been ignited by this dip in form, which has left clubs hesitant to meet his €130 million release clause.
This was evident in the 2024 summer transfer window when the player went from the pinnacle of being courted by behemoths like Real Madrid and PSG, to haggling on salary terms with an unconvinced Chelsea, only for the deal to fall through, leaving the forward in limbo.
As a result, at 25, in the peak of his powers, Osimhen is now a player in the Turkish League with Galatasaray, a team that couldn't defeat Swiss outfit, Young Boys, over two legs to secure Champions League qualification.
Given that the mark of an exceptional player is the capacity for their statistics to remain competitive even in difficult periods, is Osimhen really one of the world's top strikers or only a one-season sensation?
To answer this, this article compares Osimhen with the following best strikers in the world:
- Erling Haaland
- Lautaro Martínez
- Harry Kane
- Alexander Isak
- Dusan Vlahovic
Goals
Victor Osimhen's goal-scoring prowess, especially when juxtaposed with some of the world’s top strikers, is often the subject of debate, so to truly understand his position among the elite, a closer look at his statistics compared to his peers is essential.
Plying their trade at top UEFA clubs, Erling Haaland and Harry Kane always stand out in any lineup of the best strikers.
The Norwegian netted 29 times for Manchester City, trailing only Bayern Munich’s Harry Kane, who scored 36 goals, while at Inter Milan, key figure and captain Lautaro Martínez contributed 24 goals to guide his team to yet another Scudetto.
Victor Osimhen, with his 15-goal tally, in stark contrast, placed last in this group, well below the average of 20 goals.
Yet, raw numbers alone don’t tell the full story, as Osimhen's total was amassed in just 25 games, the fewest appearances among the six strikers under review.
Also notably behind Harry Kane's prolific 1.1 goals per game is Osimhen's scoring rate at 0.7, the lowest in the group, but just behind Haalad, who averaged 0.9 goals per game.
Goal expectancy and Scoring probability
Analysing the likelihood of scoring, Osimhen places fourth among his peers with a goal expectancy of 79% per game time, significantly lower than Haaland and Kane, who top the list with a 100% probability of scoring at least once in every match. The Manchester City striker further boasts a 9% chance of adding a second goal in any given game.
Shooting statistics: Frequency, accuracy, and conversion
Osimhen is definitely not shy when it comes to shot attempts, with his 4.1 shots per game ranking fourth just behind joint-firsts Kane, Haaland, and Dusan Vlahovic (4.3).
However, despite this high shot volume, his second-to-last shooting accuracy of 52.8%, far below Alexander Isak’s impressive 66.1% and Kane’s 61.47%, leaves room for improvement.
With nearly all (99.90%) of his shots coming from inside the penalty area, a figure slightly lower than Haaland’s 99.95%, Osimhen's style is characterised by his positioning as a classic ‘fox in the box” striker. Still, although similar to Haaland's, his shot conversion rate is the 5th worst, ahead of only the struggling Dusan Vlahovic.
It is clear that limited game time and a high expectancy of scoring when on the pitch counter Osimhen's sub-par goal tally and accuracy, offering a more balanced perspective of Osimhen's goal scoring metrics.
Incredible potential and ruthless poacher instinct make the Nigerian a formidable striker in his own right, but Osimhen may not yet be considered at the same level as Haaland or Kane.
Goal value
Diego Costa is a name that often comes to mind when discussing clutch strikers, i.e., those who deliver when the stakes are highest. Despite not shattering goal records, these forwards provided a near-guarantee of a goal when their teams needed it most.
To be considered an elite striker, Victor Osimhen has to come under similar scrutiny.
Big game presence: Falling short against the elite
Along with Napoli, the so-called "seven sisters” represent the top clubs in Italy’s fiercely competitive Serie A, and they are the games where strikers earn their mettle.
In an apparent struggle to make a significant impact in these high-stakes matches, Osimhen across seven starts against Serie A's premier clubs could only muster one goal, and that was against Roma.
Comparatively, Erling Haaland in the Premier League, a league often considered more challenging, was mercilessly ruthless against England's “Big Six.” A constant in all ten available games, Haaland netted eight goals and provided two assists in six of those matches.
Germany-based Harry Kane also outshined Osimhen in this aspect by bagging 8 goals in 5 out of the 8 games against the historical 5 biggest hitters in the Bundesliga.
The value of opening the scoring
Holding even more immense value is a striker who consistently breaks the deadlock by scoring the first goal of his team.
Osimhen opened the scoring six times for Napoli at a rate of 27.27% per start, which, while a decent figure, pales in comparison to Alexander Isak, who leads this metric with 11 opening goals for Newcastle at a 40.7% rate.
Even more impressive is Harry Kane, who scored Bayern's first goal on 12 occasions at a rate of 37.50%.
Did you know?
During the 2022/23 season across Europe’s top five leagues, only Harry Kane (21 times), Alexandre Lacazette, and Folarin Balogun (14 times each) opened the scoring for their teams more often than Osimhen, who did so 13 times.
Total contribution: A solid yet unspectacular impact
A striker’s overall contribution to his team’s success goes beyond just goals scored but how many of the team’s goals the player was directly responsible for, excluding assists.
Osimhen's contribution on this front was substantial but not outstanding, as on a per-game basis, he was responsible for 41.38% of Napoli's goals, placing him third among the six strikers analysed.
The only players with a higher percentage of their team’s goals attributed to them during games in which they participated were Harry Kane (44.53%) and Dusan Vlahovic (42.2%).
Aerial ability and physical presence
Victor Osimhen has explicitly stated in interviews that his game is modelled around African legend Didier Drogba, renowned for his physical presence and ability to dominate in the air. The Nigerian has clearly taken inspiration from the Ivorian icon to become one of the most formidable threats in world football today.
Extending beyond just his physicality and aerial prowess, this comparison also includes his combative style of play and ability to make his presence felt in duels, both in the air and on the ground.
Aerial Dominance: A leap above the rest
Perhaps Osimhen's most defining characteristic is his aerial ability, as his leap is not just impressive by football standards but also one that defies physics.
More than any of the other elite strikers compared here, including Dusan Vlahovic (1.51) and Erling Haaland (1.35), Osimhen stands tall in aerial duels, winning an average of 1.77 aerial contests per game.
A key part of his game, Osimhen's dominance in the air enables him to be a constant threat during set pieces and crosses.
Despite tallying the fewest overall goals, Osimhen's aerial proficiency is highlighted by his five headed goals, which is penultimate only to Harry Kane's eight.
To underscore just how crucial his aerial ability is to his overall goal-scoring arsenal, headers accounted for a significant 41.67% of his non-penalty goals.
Ground duels: A relentless competitor
Osimhen's amphibious physicality isn’t limited to the air, as his combative style on the ground sees him winning 9.87 ground duels per game, the second-most among the strikers compared.
This figure, only slightly behind Lautaro Martínez, who leads with 10.35 ground duels won per game, and just ahead of Dusan Vlahovic (9.7), highlights Osimhen as a relentlessly, tenacious nightmare for defenders who are often left struggling to contain his relentless energy.
Ball-playing skills and playmaking: Room for Improvement
Registering just three assists, a modest number that, while in line with some of the other strikers in this analysis, pales in comparison to Harry Kane’s eight or Erling Haaland’s five, Osimhen's playmaking and ball-playing skills are areas where there is still room for growth.
It's however important to note that these players' significant game time partly explains their higher assist tallies.
Another suggestion that Osimhen's chance creation ability isn't yet in the top tier of elite forwards is his expected assists (xA) figure, the lowest among the six strikers, sitting at less than one.
His per-game chance creation average (1.06) also places him second from bottom, but not far off from Lautaro Martínez (1.21) and Dusan Vlahovic (1.12), conclusively summing that while Osimhen is capable of creating opportunities, it’s not yet a central part of his game.
Injuries and consistency
An injury record that has often derailed his career just as it seemed to gain momentum has been the story of Victor Osimhen's journey through European football.
Plagued by injuries since his Wolfsburg days, Osimhen, since moving to Napoli in 2020, has been sidelined 15 times, missing a total of 67 games across all competitions for both club and country.
His consistency and overall contributions on the pitch have been undoubtedly impacted by this persistent unavailability.
Despite the concerns raised by his injury history, it's important to put these figures into perspective.
When scrutinising Osimhen's longest injuries, the shoulder injury in 2020, which ruled him out for 65 days, and the cheekbone injury that led to the iconic protective mask he now wears, it becomes obvious that many of his absences have been due to unfortunate impact injuries rather than chronic fitness issues.
Transcribing this pattern shows that despite his injury history, Osimhen may not be as fragile as his record suggests, and there are signs he is becoming more resilient.
With Erling Haaland, for example, missing 20 games during his first two seasons at Manchester City and Alexander Isak being sidelined for 31 matches over the same period, Osimhen's injury record is not an outlier when compared to other top strikers.
Considering the physical nature of his playing style, which naturally exposed him to more contact and, consequently, a higher risk of injury., Osimhen's absences, in this context, don't appear significantly worse.
Since Osimhen enjoyed two consecutive injury-free seasons at Charleroi and Lille before his time in Naples, Osimhen's injury history in Italy points fingers at possible mismanagement by Napoli's medical staff.
Notwithstanding who's to blame, it is evident that these disruptions have resulted in fractured performances, with Osimhen failing to reach the 2,000-minute mark in three of his four seasons at Napoli—a critical threshold that equates to about 22 full 90-minute matches.
To put this into perspective,
- Erling Haaland has surpassed 2,500 minutes in each of his two Premier League seasons.
- Isak scored 21 goals in the first season where he played over 2,200 minutes.
- Lautaro Martínez has consistently logged over 2,200 minutes in five consecutive seasons.
- Harry Kane has astonishingly exceeded 2,400 minutes for ten straight campaigns.
These figures highlight the importance of something that has eluded Osimhen for much of his career: consistent availability.
Out of eight years of senior club football, Osimhen, despite his undeniable talent, has only surpassed the 20-goal mark in a single season: his record-breaking 2022/23 season, which fetched Napoli a long-awaited Serie A triumph.
International duties
Adding a layer of complexity to his club career, particularly in terms of consistency and availability, has been Victor Osimhen's international duties with the Nigerian national team.
Despite encouraging indications of Osimhen overcoming his physical challenges, his dedication to serve his national team had major effects on his club achievements, especially due to Nigeria's regular participation in the biannual Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON).
Though these absences are evidence of his allegiance to his nation, they have occasionally come at the cost of his club's success. Last season, for example, his participation with the Nigerian national team resulted in him missing seven matches, five of which were against bottom-half opposition that would have readily increased his goal returns.
With the club president pledging to take a cautious approach when recruiting African players, Osimhen's national team-induced absences have had such a detrimental effect and created disturbances during critical points in the season that it has altered Napoli's recruitment strategy.
De Laurentis's cautiousness was reinforced when Osimhen rushed his comeback from his second-longest injury to take part in AFCON 2021 against medical advice from Napoli who had implied a longer recovery time.
He contracted COVID-19 on his Nigerian trip, further delaying his hurried homecoming by postponing his recovery to full fitness.
The only season Osimhen missed less than three games for the Nigerian national team since transferring to Europe's top divisions was his outstanding 2022/23 campaign, which motivated Napoli to a championship triumph.
Although Osimhen's most active season in European football and the only time he exceeded the 20-goal mark came from this decreased worldwide engagement, it still begs issues regarding the balance between his international obligations and club career. Reducing the former could help to release more consistent club-level performance.
Consistency
Outright consistency-wise, Osimhen had a strike rate of 52% from 13 of the 25 games in which he participated. Though somewhat below the average of 57% for his top colleagues, this statistic captures the difficulties presented by his injuries and international obligations as it trails well behind the likes of Harry Kane, who scored in 75% of his games, and Erling Haaland, who commanded a 61.29% strike percentage.
Did you know?
Osimhen scored in 22 of the 32 games he played in 2022/23, an astounding total of 68.75%.
Verdict: Is Osimhen an Elite Striker or a One-Season Wonder?
Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
Proven goal scorer since youth | Inconsistent club performances |
Combative and tenacious style | Poor finishing |
Very strong heading ability | Limited big game impact |
Clutch player | Limited playmaking ability |
High poacher’s instinct | Frequent injuries |
Consistent performer for national team |
Strengths | Weaknesses |
|---|---|
Proven goal scorer since youth | Inconsistent club performances |
Combative and tenacious style | Poor finishing |
Very strong heading ability | Limited big game impact |
Clutch player | Limited playmaking ability |
High poacher’s instinct | Frequent injuries |
Consistent performer for national team |
Stunning peaks, frustrating challenges—this has been the hallmark of a footballing journey for Victor Osimhen that has fostered a meteoric rise to prominence punctuated by a record-breaking 2022–23 season, which solidified his reputation as one of the most exciting talents in the game.
Osimhen's credentials as a top-tier striker cannot be dismissed, especially with honours such as Serie A Footballer of the Year and African Footballer of the Year, accolades bestowed on him following his role in leading Napoli to their first Scudetto since the days of Diego Maradona.
Yet, the subsequent season saw only 15 goals compared to the previous 26, a significant dip in form that, coupled with his protracted transfer saga, has led to questions about his consistency and whether he can maintain elite-level performances over time.
Osimhen's numbers paint a mixed picture when compared to Erling Haaland, Harry Kane, Lautaro Martínez, Alexander Isak, and Dusan Vlahovic, the world's best strikers.
Despite being a very capable scorer, Osimhen’s 15-goal tally, the lowest in this elite group, and his uninspiring goal expectancy per game highlight a lack of relentless consistency compared to Haaland or Kane.
With a high rank in shot volumes and a sharp contrast in accuracy that ranks bottom, Osimhen's shooting stats reveal both promise and a need for more clinical finishing. On the other hand, his formidable presence in the air as well as his combative physical presence is a distinguishing attribute.
Unlike Haaland and Kane, Osimhen's strengths are watered down by a well-documented struggle to make significant impacts in high-stakes matches as well as his lower rate of scoring opening goals and match winners.
Furthermore, important elements influencing the Nigerian's consistency are constant injuries that have both led to a marked lack of ability to sustain form and a clear unavailability.
However, his injury record might not be as concerning as it appears at first glance, as rather than chronic fitness issues, many of his injuries have been impact-related.
Another layer of complexity that has occasionally disrupted his club's form is his commitment to the Nigerian national team, with trends emphasising that finding the right equilibrium could be crucial for his sustained success at club level since he continues to face the challenge of balancing international duties with club commitments.
What our analysis has conclusively determined is that if he overcomes the one hurdle of consistency, both in terms of performance and availability, Victor Osimhen possesses the raw talent, physical attributes, and goal-scoring instinct to be an elite striker.
To be truly considered among the best, Osimhen must replicate his 2022–23 season, which demonstrated his potential to be a world-class forward, over multiple seasons.
In the long run, his ability to stay fit, perform in crucial games, and maintain his form amidst the demands of both club and international football will determine if he evolves into a consistent, elite striker or remains a player known for a spectacular but singular season.