Cole Palmer vs Jude Bellingham - Who really deserved the England Player of the Year award?

 Goals Scored and Shot Efficiency

At a competitive rate of 0.76 goals per 90 minutes that ranked 4th domestically, Cole Palmer found the net 22 times in 2023/24, the 2nd highest in the Premier League and 9th across Europe’s Big 5 leagues. 

Just behind Palmer was Jude Bellingham with his 19 goals, the 3rd highest in La Liga, scored at the rate of 0.74 per 90 minutes. Particularly impressive were his 18 non-penalty goals, which ranked 10th across the Big 5 leagues, hinting at a more natural goal-scoring instinct that relied on dynamic play rather than set pieces. 

 Shot volume and accuracy

As reflected by his relatively high shot volume (100 shots) compared to Jude Bellingham (62 shots), Palmer takes an aggressive, attack-minded role, consistently looking to test the goalkeeper. 

Due to this, Bellingham had better shooting accuracy that resulted in a significantly higher conversion rate, with his goals per shot ratio of 0.29, indicating that he was more efficient with the chances he took than Palmer (0.13), needing fewer shots to score.

However, being a long-range specialist, as reflected by his average shot distance of 22.1 yards, many of Palmer’s attempts were taken from outside the box, as reflected by his average shot distance of 22.1 yards, which naturally reduced his shot accuracy and conversion rate. 

Conversely, Bellingham's shot distance of 14.8 yards showed his advanced positioning and movement in and around the penalty area, which allowed him accurate and higher-percentage shots, contributing to his superior finishing efficiency.

 Expected Goals (xG) and Overperformance

Palmer is most known for his clinical finishing, but his numbers on paper indicate that his finishing ability when playing in open play is just above-average. This is demonstrated by his +1.9 npxG overperformance, which means that he slightly outperformed the quality of opportunities from which he was expected to score.

Bellingham's xG overperformance of +7.9 goals, however, was among the best in the Big 5 leagues, implying that either through outstanding individual brilliance or elite-level finishing, his goals came from chances where the likelihood of scoring was less than his actual output.

Due to the nature of their roles and the tactical requirements of their respective squads, the distribution, accuracy, and overall involvement of Palmer and Bellingham, both key passers for their teams, in passing differed. 

 Total passing and completion rates

Cole Palmer was a forward-thinking creator with Chelsea last season, with his passing highly geared towards progressing the ball forward, as reflected in his 1,125 passes accumulating a total distance of 18,673 yards, of which 5,642 yards were progressive. 

As typical of a player seeking to break defensive lines, Palmer, either due to an aggressive attempt to stretch play or moments of misplaced ambition, had a long pass completion rate of 54.3%, which sharply contrasted to his 90.3% completion rate for short passes and 84.9% for medium passes.

Cole Palmer proved reliable in maintaining possession and executing passes in congested areas just like Bellingham, whose lower progressive passing distance of 4,025 yards, despite a higher passing distance of 19,609 yards, earmarks him as more conservative or deeper in his passing. 

Diplaying a well-rounded passing ability that is effective in both possession retention and advancing play, Bellingham enjoyed notable efficiency across all ranges from short passes (92.0%) to medium passes (90.4%) to long passes (84.4%). 

 Assists and Expected Assists (xA)

As a result of his more inventive passing, Palmer managed 11 league assists, the second highest in the league and fourth across Europe’s Big 5 leagues, with his closely matching xAG of 11.1 indicating that his assists were a natural product of the chances he was creating. 

Since his role at Real Madrid often involved driving the team forward rather than being the primary playmaker, Bellingham, with an assist total of 6 from an xA of 5.3, somewhat underperformed in this area relative to the quality of chances he was creating. 

In addition, due to his occasional deeper role, particularly when compared to Palmer, who operates more as a final-third creator, Bellingham had a lower assist average that reflected a more balanced approach to his responsibilities, combining scoring, progressing play, and creating.

 Key Passes and Penalty Area Entries

Palmer is a very incisive passer and potent attacking threat whose vision and decision-making allowed him to consistently thread the ball into dangerous positions, as demonstrated by his 69 passes into the penalty area, the seventh highest in the Premier League.

He is a traditional playmaker adept at unlocking defences with precise, defence-splitting passes, as indicated by his seven successful through balls, the fourth highest in the league. Palmer also created the 8th most chances (72) in the Premier League. 

Although Bellingham successfully threaded 6 through balls, the 4th highest in La Liga, his playing style was very different to his UK-based compatriot, as shown by his 48 key passes, which demonstrated his more balanced role between playmaking and other contributions like ball-carrying and scoring. 

 Touches and involvement in different areas

Jude Bellingham, deployed as a box-to-box midfielder with more responsibility across the pitch, had a more constant involvement in Real Madrid's play, shown by his higher touches than Palmer. His more presence in the midfield third best shows how the Spain-based midfielder contributed more in between defence and attack.

Cole Palmer's higher touches in the attacking third suggested that he had had a more focused presence higher up the pitch, matching his role as a playmaker and creator for his team. Often functioning closer to the opposition goal and linking up with attackers.

Bellingham's greater presence in the defensive third suggests that he also tended to drop deeper more regularly to get the ball and start defensive attacks.

 Points Per Match (PPM) and +/- Metrics

Throughout the season, Jude Bellingham had a positive influence on match outcomes for Madrid, with the club posting a 2.46 point average in matches where he featured. This was the eighth highest average among Real Madrid players.

Although Chelsea enjoyed a more modest 1.74 PPM with Palmer on the pitch, his impact was much more influential, with only four Chelsea players (20 starts or more) being more productive. 

 Key Scoring Contributions

In terms of key goals for their teams, Palmer was the go-to guy for Chelsea, opening the scoring for them 12 times compared to Bellingham’s 7.

However, Bellingham had a knack for delivering when it mattered most, slightly edging Palmer (7) with nine game-winning goals. 

 Direct contributions to team goals

Nearly half of the goals scored by Chelsea involved Palmer directly, as the winger-cum-midfielder had a staggering direct contribution of 42.86% to his team’s goals, which, when compared to Bellingham (28.7% of Real Madrid’s goals), showed his indispensable role in driving offensive production. 

 Consistency and performances in key matches

Palmer showed exceptional consistency last season, scoring or assisting in 20 matches, which, when compared to Bellingham’s 16, speaks to Palmer's ability to contribute regularly across a variety of situations and opponents.

However, Bellingham cemented his status as a key player for his team in high-pressure situations, scoring 7 goals and registering 2 assists in 9 games against the season’s top 6 teams, compared to Palmer's 3 goals and 1 assist in 9 matches. 

Although failing to lift any major team trophies with Chelsea in 2024, Cole Palmer was a revelation in the Premier League, earning a series of individual accolades, including:

• England’s Men’s Player of the Year, 
• London Football Awards Men’s Young Player of the Year, 
• Chelsea Player of the Season, 
• Chelsea Player's Player of the Season, 
• Premier League Young Player of the Season, 
• Premier League Young Player of the Season, 
• Premier League Game Changer of the Season, 
• PFA Young Player of the Year, and 
• PFA Fans' Player of the Year.

The player was included in the Premier League Fan Team of the Season and in Sofascore's team of the week on eight occasions. 

Bellingham's year, however, transcended individual brilliance, and he achieved significant team success at Real Madrid, helping them secure the traditional treble along with the UEFA Super Cup. 

He was rightfully rewarded for his success, being named

• La Liga Player of the Season, 
• Laureus World Breakthrough of the Year, 
• The Athletic European Player of the Season and the Athletic European Young Player of the Season 

In addition to this, Bellingham was recognised as one of the best talents in Europe with inclusion in the UEFA Champions League Team of the Season and the award for UEFA Champions League Young Player of the Season.

Cole Palmer is unquestionably an offensive powerhouse, having shown consistency over a great spectrum of games, been the Blues' regular go-to scorer, and won many individual honours.

However Palmer's exploits this season, notwithstanding his higher goal contribution, were overshadowed by Jude Bellingham, who stood out for his efficiency, contributions in high-pressure situations, key goals in top-tier matches, and most importantly, Real Madrid's treble-winning season, notwithstanding his higher goal contribution.

Bellingham showed a well-rounded influence transcending mere numbers that, given his presence in all stages of play—from scoring to ball progression—is too great to overlook.

Jude Bellingham is therefore more deserving of the England's Men's Player of the Year award despite Cole Palmer's exceptional, record-breaking season because of the Madrid man's combined successes and decisive moments.