Nigeria on brink of missing out on 2nd consecutive World Cup: How did they get here? What is the way out?

As evidenced by their six World Cup appearances (1994–2018), three Africa Cup of Nations titles (1980, 1994, 2013), and a cradle of many gifted players, Nigeria has always been a benchmark for African football since their World Cup debut in 1994. Once proudly dubbed the "Giants of Africa", this team now finds itself on the brink of a cliff.

The Super Eagles currently sit fourth in Group C with only 7 points from 6 matches, trailing leaders, South Africa, by 6 points, and if they cannot turn the tide in the remaining four matches, will miss out on World Cup qualification for the second consecutive campaign, which could lead to a complete upheaval from the Football Association to academies.

Current standing and group dynamics

The status of Nigeria in Group C of the World Cup Qualifiers CAF Zone can be characterised as "disastrous". With a goal difference of +1, the Super Eagles have only won once in the first six rounds of games, scoring 7 goals and conceding 6.

South Africa leads the standings with 13 goals; Rwanda and Benin both have 8 points, Lesotho has 6, while Zimbabwe sits bottom with 4 points. Based on competition rules, the group winner secures an automatic qualification while the best second-placed teams across the four groups enter the playoffs.

However, Nigeria are not just six points behind another historic footballing nation in South Africa but also lag behind minnows Rwanda and Benin, meaning a second-place berth is even a tall order.

This places great significance on the remaining four games comprising an away clash against Lesotho (October 2025), a home game against Benin (October 2025), an away challenge against South Africa (date to be decided), and a home confrontation against Rwanda (date to be decided).

Nigeria must accrue at least 8 more points (an ideal objective is 12 points) to qualify for the playoffs as the second-placed team in the group, but the fact is they have only won 1 out of their last 6 games despite having already played the widely regarded “whipping boys” of Zimbabwe and Lesotho.

How they got into this tight spot

Dark humour abounds in Nigeria's World Cup qualifying record. A head-to-head disaster caused a surprise elimination in 2006, while the away goals rule in a pivotal game against Ghana prevented World Cup participation in 2022.

Today, a similar script appears to be playing out once more, as tactical uncertainty, lack of form, and inadequate management combine to impede the team's development.

Ironically, this squad is not without strength, as at the start they made it to the finals of the 2023 Africa Cup of Nations, where they barely lost to Ivory Coast.

Nigeria has a roster that includes wingers Chukwueze, Simon and Ejuke, who play for European powerhouses AC Milan, Nantes and Sevilla, respectively, as well as Osimhen, the most sought-after striker in the world, and Lookman, the current African player of the year.

Their performance in the qualifiers, on the other hand, has been night and day in comparison to AFCON. The Super Eagles surprisingly drew the first two games against Lesotho and Zimbabwe and suffered a startling loss in the third round to Benin, leading to social media users mocking the Super Eagles as glorified “pigeons”.

Why they are struggling

Nigeria's biggest dilemma is their over-reliance on 100-million-euro star forward Osimhen, who has scored all of their last three goals. Wingers Chukwueze and Simon are in terrible form; midfield core Iwobi has been deployed in a very defensive position; and DM Ndidi has experienced a drop in performance since Leicester's relegation two years ago.

The defence is even more appalling. Troost-Ekong, a 31-year-old based in Saudi Arabia, was easily beaten for Zimbabwe's equaliser, with the record of 6 goals in 6 games clearly illustrating the ageing problem.

This stagnation has been compounded by the disorganised administration of the Nigeria Football Federation (NFF), who postponed naming a long-term manager from the November 2023 draw with Lesotho until January 2025.

Supporters are equally losing faith in the team, with boos heard during the home game versus Lesotho.

What needs to be done

For a chance at qualification, Nigeria has to secure at least 8 points (preferably 12 points) in the last four games:

1. Away game vs Lesotho (October): A win or they will be essentially eliminated.
2. Home game versus Benin (October): Must at least score 2 goals to offset the loss in the first leg.
3. Away versus South Africa (date undetermined): Though South Africa is in terrific form, a draw on foreign soil would be regarded as a triumph.
4. Home vs Rwanda: Win and hope that other opponents would have dropped points.

Winning every match will see Nigeria theoretically reach a point tally of 19 and very likely usurp the South Africans, but it remains a tall order for a team with only one win in six matches. 

On the other hand, a total of only 8 points in the next four games, summed up to 15 points, may not be enough to top the group.

In the short term, to improve their performance Nigeria needs to:

1. Switch to 4-3-3: Free Iwobi into an attacking midfield role, coupled with the double pivot of Ndidi and Onyeka to aid in improving midfield control.
2. Turn on the wingers. Swap Chukwueze for Nathan Tella and Simon for Lookman.
3. Set-piece training: With three goals conceded in six games from defensive lapses, there have to be reinforcements to plug this gap.

Current trends show that 14–16 points could be sufficient to progress to the playoffs; however, a better goal difference is needed (currently +1, which has to be increased to +3 or +5).

If Nigeria makes it to the playoffs as the second in their group, they would face the other three second-placed teams, with Cameroon being likely opponents. Should they be successful, they will be facing an Asian/North American team such as Jordan to qualify for the 2026 World Cup finale.

Although Nigeria can find motivation in their elimination of Ethiopia through playoffs in 2013, their present squad lacks leaders like Mikel and Moses.

Conclusion

Nigerian football is facing an unprecedented confidence crisis, which is far from the golden generation of 1994, with Okocha and Kanu, to today, when Osimhen stands alone.

Should they eventually miss the World Cup in 2026, not only will commercial sponsorship be missed, but their reputation as the "beacon of African football" would also be undermined.