Analysising the benefits and risks of a potential Victor Osimhen transfer to Chelsea
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The question on the lips of fans in the residual wake of Osimhen's failed last-minute transfer to Chelsea last summer has been, “Is a hypothetical 2025 union with Chelsea still the legendary sword to break the “number 9 curse,” or is he just another pricey requiem?”
Despite a great start to the 2024/25 season, first-choice striker Nicolas Jackson has only scored 9 goals in the first 23 league games, thus reflecting the protracted tragedy that Chelsea's forward line problems have developed into since Diego Costa left in 2017.
From Morata's uncertainty to Lukaku's treachery, and from Werner's wastefulness to Nicolas Jackson's inexperience, the Blues' center-forward position has been a graveyard for talent, with the jinx hovering over Stamford Bridge like a ghost.
Beyond goals and points, Chelsea's possible signing of Victor Osimhen is an ultimate bet, comprising historical fate, financial risk, cultural identity, and the ultimate test of the chaotic recruitment strategy of the Boehly era.
With a 75% success rate in aerial duels and 26 goals in Serie A, Osimhen's performance in the 2022–23 season looks to be the "coming of age" this young squad requires, or is it?
Why Chelsea signing Osimhen is a good move for the club
Ending the seven-year striker drought
At Stamford Bridge, Drogba's legacy reminds Chelsea of their close links to African football, but the Blues have not found a superstar equipped to continue the legacy since the retirement of the Ivorian great.
With the failures of Torres, Morata, and Lukaku psychologically weighing this shirt, Chelsea's No. 9 jersey has long since dropped from a symbol of glory to a "cursed number."
Chelsea's striker problems peaked in 2024/25, with a total of twelve goals in 48 combined league appearances from their three centre forwards—Jackson, Nkunku, and Guiu—revealing their poor performance. Osimhen merges the aggressiveness of Diego Costa with Drogba's aerial supremacy to offer a lasting change to this scenario.
With his 65 goals in 108 games in Serie A, an average of a goal every 127 minutes, significantly more efficient than Jackson's greatest single season (goal every 134 minutes in Villarreal 22/23), the Nigerian looks to be the missing piece to this brain-racking puzzle.
Osimhen also boasts an aerial duel success rate of 75%, miles better than the Premier League average during the same period (53%), thereby promising to ignite Chelsea's dormant passing armoury.
Should Palmer's much-praised inventiveness and Neto's sharp crosses locate the Nigerian forward, the Blues' conversion rate could increase from the present 8.9% to top three in the Premier League.
Cultural totem of the African market
With Drogba, Essien, Mikel, and Victor Moses, Chelsea developed a marketing image of "African Power" in their storied history, but in recent years this cultural identification has progressively faded.
Osimhen's value as the 2023 African Footballer of the Year could help to revive this approach since the potential of the Nigerian market, the Premier League's biggest outside the UK, combined with the reach of his following from the football-mad Galatasaray will open new paths for the club's regional sponsorship deals. Thanks to the success of the Roman Abramovich period, Chelsea boasts the biggest following in Nigeria based on spectator patterns, opening more doors to an already flourishing ecosystem.
More crucially, Osimhen's mask symbolism could become the next iconic emblem at Stamford Bridge, echoing the cultural totem influence Drogba had back in the day.
The anchor of the youth storm
The youth-focused approach of the Todd Boehly era has exposed severe shortcomings: while Palmer (22), Fernandez (24), and Jackson (23) are all quite gifted, the Chelsea squad, the youngest in the league, lacks a leader who can produce consistent output.
With his Serie A championship experience filling that void, Osimhen, 26, will be a tactical textbook in a locker room where his tough-as-nails style of play could create a mental benchmark for his younger teammates.
Osimhen will arrive at Chelsea not just with the unique champion mindset of being the focal point of a Serie A title-winning squad but also with a proven ability to adapt to other league conditions thanks to his 16 goals in his first 19 outings for Galatasaray.
History reveals that the chemistry between "veterans and rising stars"—such as that between Drogba and Robben in 2004 and the synergy between Drogba and Mata in 2012—has always been essential for Chelsea's golden years. Palmer, Fernandez, Madueke, and Jackson's growth into world-class institutions could find impetus in this experience, and Osimhen's contribution is the modern response to this effective formula.
Why Arsenal signing Osimhen is a good move for the player
For Osimhen, joining Chelsea means stepping into the ultimate realm of football commercialisation, as London's status as a global media hub will significantly enhance his commercial value.
The "Drogba Complex" at Stamford Bridge is a two-edged blade that represents an unparalleled opportunity for Osimhen to walk his way to legendary status.
Drogba secured his legacy with 164 goals, and the Nigerian forward, who idolises the Ivorian, only needs to repeat 60% of that output to become a saviour in the hearts of his supporters.
Why Chelsea signing Osimhen is a bad move for the club
The deadly noose of Financial Fair Play
With Chelsea's transfer spending during the Boehly period exceeding £1 billion, Osimhen's arrival could be the final straw that breaks the camel's back for FFP compliance.
With every net expenditure bringing them closer to the Premier League's Profitability and Sustainability Rule (PSR) red line, Chelsea's ostensive spending approach is under extreme strain.
Osimhen's £75 million transfer fee could force the club to sell young academy jewels like they did with Gallagher last summer in a "robbing Peter to pay Paul" strategy that will aggravate the mismatch in squad depth.
Additionally, though his release clause has dropped to £75m, Osimhen's £256,000 weekly salary demand—which is only exceeded by Raheem Sterling, Christopher Nkunku, and Jadon Sancho—was the source of conflict for last summer's failed sale and could directly undermine the payroll system.
More dangerously, if he turns out to be another flop, Chelsea will have to cope with a "bad high-salary contract," with Aubameyang's free departure in 2023 having shown that the cost of moving failed players far exceeds the transfer fee itself.
The philosophical conflict of tactical adaptability
While Osimhen's success at Napoli is based on his privilege as a "box striker," Maresca's possession-based system calls for the centre forward to often drop back and join the buildup.
Data shows that Osimhen averaged only 25 touches per game in Serie A, with 61% coming in the opponent's third. whereas Nicolas Jackson last season averaged 33 touches per game, with 45% in the midfield area.
Like the catastrophe of Werner's drop from a Bundesliga striker to a "running worker" under Lampard's system, this position change could stifle the Nigerians deadly drive.
AFCON concerns
Osimhen and Jackson will both be on duty at the Africa Cup of Nations in December 2025, leaving Chelsea with an attack of 18-year-old Giui and inconsistent Nkunku.
For a team striving for the championship, this would not only be equivalent to suicide but could also cause the management to make panic acquisitions during the winter transfer season, aggravating the FFP debacle even further.
The microscope of the London media
The scrutiny of London tabloids is practically merciless when compared to the inclusive public opinion Osimhen has been used to in Naples.
Osimhen's social media scandals—such as his dressing down of his national team manager on a live stream or his fallout with Napoli over a TikTok video—will be amplified in an environment already devoid of a robust system to safeguard its players.
Lack of UCL guarantees; no direct Haaland storyline
A place in Europe's flagship club tournament is not guaranteed for Chelsea like it has been for a more consistent Arsenal, marking a major retreat for Osimhen, who wants to confirm his "world-class striker" tag.
Unlike Manchester United and Arsenal, Chelsea lacks a historic rivalry with the Premier League's most dominant force in Manchester City in the past five years, which makes the relocation less appealing since it provides Osimhen no established storyline conflict against the generational forward Erling Haaland.
Osimhen would thus not be able to maximise the popularity, iconicity, or commercial value that being the focal point of either the Manchester Derby or the "Stay Humble Derby" would have guaranteed.
Potential dressing room rift
Victor Osimhen is at great risk of being dragged into Chelsea's dressing room politics due to a wobbly foundation laid by Blues icon John Mikel Obi.
The former Nigerian skipper has, on several occasions, criticised Nicolas Jackson on his podcast while endorsing his countryman in a barrage of attacks that many have interpreted as him demarketing the Senegalese's stock to promote his own brother.
This strategy of "elevating a compatriot by belittling others" has been widely interpreted as a public relations effort to pave the way for Osimhen's transfer.
Mikel's criticism has been so relentless that Jackson once hit back at the footballer-turned-pundit on social media, demanding that he “shut up.”
Osimhen walking into such a dressing room to displace an aggrieved player who has a strong internal relationship with the club's core players, Palmer, Caicedo, and Enzo, could be a recipe for disaster.
Not the undisputed number 9
Unlike Manchester United and Arsenal, who have no comparable metric in the squad to gauge Osimhen's performances, Jackson has thrown down the gauntlet with his double-digit goal tally in each of his first two Premier League seasons—a record Osimhen will have to better prove his worth.
Additionally, unless Chelsea trims its forward line in the summer, Osimhen will be at the top of a congested pecking order that has Jackson, Nkunku, Guiu, Washington, and Datro Fofana trailing behind, leaving marginal room for error and amplifying the pressure.
Sunamary: Is Osimhen to Chelsea a good or bad move?
For Chelsea, signing Osimhen is a conflict between competitive reality and capital ambition.
The club's £270 million investment in the center-forward position since 2017 has all failed, and Osimhen's brilliant displays in Serie A and the Turkish Super Lig seem to be the perfect panacea for this dilemma. Palmer's inventiveness and Gusto's crosses will be maximised by his aerial ability and nose for the box, hence resolving Chelsea's present "conversion crisis."
Furthermore, his "Drogba Successor" story, which is symbolised by his African background, mask, and aggressive approach, could inspire fan excitement and unleash the economic potential of the African market. More importantly, with his expertise,
Additionally, Osimhen shows up as a senior head to a group that is the youngest in the Premier League and has occasionally lacked direction.
But all of this is shadowed by Financial Fair Play (FFP). Chelsea's operational space will be squeezed by Osimhen's £75 million transfer fee and £256,000 weekly pay, which will result in the sale of young assets, including Chalobah, reducing squad depth.
Secondly, Maresca's possession-based approach relies on the centre forward's routinely dropping back, which runs counter to Osimhen's "box predator" quality.
Furthermore, the politics in the locker room could turn toxic, as Mikel Obi's criticisms have planted the seeds of a possible conflict between Osimhen and Jackson.
Chelsea will also be at risk of losing Osimhen and Jackson, the two first-choice strikers for their national teams, during the African Cup of Nations, thus severely compromising their very inexperienced forward line.
For Osimhen, Chelsea provides a core position and a commercial springboard. He will be supplied by one of the most creative midfielders in the Premier League, boosting his chances of following in Drogba's illustrious footsteps and a potential run at the Premier League Golden Boot.
In addition, London's global influence would have a huge impact on his personal brand.
But the risk of being at the front of a congested queue of five strikers and the likely absence of Champions League football dilutes any positives from a Chelsea move for Osimhen.
Final verdict: The greater evil
Osimhen moving to Chelsea is emotionally the best move for both player and club, but theoretically it comes with the most jeopardy.
Thanks to Osimhen's reduced release clause, the main drawback for Chelsea will just be the impact on their wage structure and his looming exit to the 2025 AFCON along with Nicolas Jackson.
In return for this sacrifice, the Blues will be adding a player with a wealth of experience and abilities that match the team's needs, a mix that is not just currently beneficial to the young squad but also the most potent charm to break the historical number 9 curse.
For Osimhen, every possible advantage is diluted by the Blues congested roster of strikers, which not only means that his position is not undisputed but also puts him under immense pressure to perform immediately, especially with Jackson already setting a benchmark. Except Boehly trims the forward line in the summer, moving to Chelsea will be a worse transfer than to Arsenal or Manchester United for Victor Osimhen.