2025 Ballon d'Or power rankings: Strongest contenders for the next Ballon d'Or

The main objective of this article is to thoroughly examine the primary competencies and possible shortcomings of each Ballon d'Or candidate. [updated weekly]

Raphinha's incredible 24/25 season is the ideal mix of time, circumstances, and teamwork. The Brazilian winger has been handed a new tactical role since Hans Flick took over Barcelona—from a conventional wide playmaker to an attacking core engaged in both organisation and finishing. This tweak has completely unleashed his full all-around abilities.

Raphinha contributed 13 goals and 7 assists in the first 26 La Liga games and leads the Champions League scoring chart with a terrific efficiency of 11 goals and 5 assists in the first 10 matches.

His offensive involvement has been exceptional, ranking in the 98th percentile across Europe for non-penalty expected goals (npxG), while his expected assists (xAG) reach the 99th percentile, demonstrating that he is not only a finisher but also an engine for chance creation.

Raphinha's ascent is intricately intertwined with his influence in big games. He etched his name into El Clásico by scoring twice against Real Madrid in the Spanish Super Cup final, and his hat-trick against Bayern Munich in the Champions League group stage totally broke the 'Barça fear of Germany' curse.

From the standpoint of team accolades, Barcelona's three-front title-competing capability somewhat exceeds Liverpool's single-front effort, giving Raphinha an edge over Salah.

More crucially, as of March 15, his inventiveness has become Barcelona's lifeline, ranking second in Europe's Top 5 leagues for key passes.

Barcelona have advanced to the quarter-finals of the Champions League, are joint leaders of a tightly contested La Liga season, and have reached the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey. Raphinha's Ballon d'Or path has a strong foundation thanks to this momentum in the three contests.

If Barcelona can replicate the splendour of the "treble," Raphinha will not only be the new ruler of Camp Nou but also the first Barcelona player to win the Ballon d'Or since Messi.

Time feels especially kind to Salah at Anfield. With an apparently ageless style, the 31-year-old Egyptian sensation keeps penning his own legend in the Premier League. In the first 29 Premier League games, he delivered a seemingly impossible 27 goals and 17 assists, ranking highest on the scorer's list. He is also on track to break Henry's and De Bruyne's joint legendary record of 20 assists in a single season..

With the Liverpool star scoring or assisting in 86.2% of league games this season, the highest ratio among players in Europe with 20 or more appearances, Salah's season precisely combines efficiency and stability.

But his stats of 3 goals and 4 assists in 9 games seem a little lacking, especially given the Egyptian's no-show in the round of 16 loss to Paris Saint-Germain.

Despite the UCL exit, the "Reds" are on a home run to the league title, having opened a noteworthy 15 points between them and the closest challenger in the Premier League.

Data-wise, Salah has a small advantage in output; nevertheless, Rapinha's Champions League performance and the importance of the event are more convincing.

Furthermore, the Ballon d'Or choices have always favoured the core members of the Champions League-winning team; thus, if Raphinha can lead Barcelona to the top of Europe, he will almost certainly win the trophy over Salah, who needed to win both the Premier League and the Champions League to replicate the "lone hero" narrative of Benzema in '22.

Once referred to as the "glass man" and "wild card," Ousmane Dembélé is now developing into Paris Saint-Germain's absolute core.

Dembélé has scored 20 goals and provided 5 assists in his 23 Ligue 1 games as well as 7 goals and 3 assists in 10 Champions League games, with his finishing being the most efficient it has ever been.

Dembélé has been totally awakened by Enrique's tactical revolution, allowing him a free front line role to regularly interchange with the equally amazing Kvaratskhelia. This resulted in him scoring the most goals in Europe in the first three months of 2025.

Currently leading Ligue 1, PSG will square off against Aston Villa in the Champions League quarterfinals, giving the Frenchman more room for world-class heroics.

Still, concerns linger around him: would the Ligue 1 competitive level reduce the significance of his statistics?

Dembélé's most notable performances in the Champions League have come against English boys Manchester City and Liverpool, and if they scale into the semifinals, he will be crossing paths with one of either Arsenal or Real Madrid.

Like Neymar's incredible performance at Camp Nou in 2017, Ousmane Dembélé must provide an all-timer against elite clubs like these if he is to really break into the top two for the Ballon d'Or.

Rising to global attention as the lone hero of the 2024 Europa League final, Ademola Lookman became the first player to score a hat-trick in a European competition final since 1975; an amazing feat that ended Bayer Leverkusen's 51-game perfect run.

He has kept up his exploits in the 2024–25 season as the most lethal "invisible assassin" in Serie A, having scored 13 goals and 5 assists in his first 23 league games. Behind his five goals and one assist in seven Champions League games is his attacking aggression, highlighted by 3.63 shots per game.

His non-penalty goal efficiency (0.74/90) and offensive contribution value (0.81 npxG+xAG/90) rank in the top 5% of European wingers, while Ademola Lookman's 42.4% shooting accuracy further shows his finishing consistency.

In Gasperini's 3-4-1-2 style, the 27-year-old Nigerian maestro of positional play also serves as a counterattack weapon.

However, despite being the reigning African Footballer of the Year and selected for the CAF Team of the Year, the irony of fate is that Atalanta's startling exit from the Champions League in the knockout playoffs and their underdog prospects in the Serie A title race have cast a shadow over his Ballon d'Or chances.

Lookman's 250/1 odds to win the 2025 Ballon d'Or indicate that his unquestionable brilliance needs a more ruthless arena to affirm him as a strong contender.

Amidst the roars from the South Stand at Westfalenstadion, or Signal Iduna Park as it is officially known, a 190-cm tall Guinean attacker is redefining the term "complete forward." Guirassy scored 14 goals and provided one assist in the first 23 Bundesliga games, which pales in comparison to his more impressive 10 goals and 4 assists in the 12 Champions League games.

With his 24 goals and 5 assists overall, the African striker has carved the word "efficiency" into every inch of the pitch.

His Champions League efficiency of 0.84 goals per game puts him on par with Mbappé, while his 70 shots (fourth in the Bundesliga) and 32 shots on target (third in the Champions League) show an irresistible offensive drive.

Sadly, the football world is not sympathetic to "tragic heroes." The horrible 11th placement of Borussia Dortmund in the league has made Guirassy's road to the Ballon d'Or challenging.

His journey to the podium begins with Dortmund's quarter-final clash against Barcelona, who have three stronger candidates on their roster. Like Ricken in 1997, Serhou Guirassy needs not only statistics but also a "saver" script in the Champions League to create one of the greatest blockbusters in Ballon d'Or history.

Lamine Yamal is the chosen one the world of football has been desperately yearning for since Lionel Messi's departure from Europe. With maturity beyond his years, the 17-year-old La Masia academy graduate in 24/25 stunned the globe with 5 goals and 11 assists in the first 21 games as well as 6 goal contributions in the first 9 Champions League.

Barcelona's right flank corridor has been totally ignited by his presence, as he has completed the most dribbles in Europe's top 5 leagues as of April 1. He has most notably set the footballing world alight with his trademark trivela passes.

However, the harsh reality of the Ballon d'Or is that potential cannot be traded for instant honours, though. Even if his ability has qualified him to join the Ballon d'Or shortlist, unless Barcelona wins the Champions League with him as the core, 2025 may only be the "prologue" of this young genius.

While Haaland was caught in a "goal drought" at Manchester City, another Nordic killer was surgically exacting his conquest on the Premier League. Aleksander Isak scored 19 goals and provided 5 assists in the first 25 league games in the 2024–25 season, with his feat of scoring in 8 consecutive games rivalling that of the legendary Alan Shearer.

While his average of 0.82 non-penalty anticipated goals plus assists (npxG+xAG) per game has pushed the notion of a "modern striker" to its extreme, his 69.39% shooting accuracy and 60% conversion rate of quality chances place a censor on the word "waste."

Isak's aura lies in his ideal mix of the classical and the modern.

At 192 cm tall, he can dribble with the grace of Henry and demolish centerbacks with the aggressiveness of Drogba.

However, despite Aleksander Isak's "all-around performances" winning him the Premier League Player of the Month award for December, the Ballon d'Or's strict criteria hang over him.

Although he won the League Cup title for Newcastle, ending a wait lasting generations, Isak's absence from Europe, especially the Champions League, makes his 40/1 odds to win the gong seem more like a courtesy acknowledgement of a "small league superstar.” Unless the Saudi consortium makes a bombshell signing of a superstar this summer, his story might only remain in the realm of "what if.”

From Paris to Madrid, Mbappé's 24–25 season has been mixed with highs and lows. Although his record of 18 goals in 25 La Liga games is considerably less than the duo of Raphinha and Lewandowski, Mbappé's dominance in the Champions League is unparalleled.

Despite a slow start, Mbappé's 7 goals in the first 12 Champions League games—including a historic hat-trick against Manchester City in the Round of 16—have made Bernabéu supporters completely discard doubts about "if Mbappé fits Real Madrid."

The Frenchman's expected goals (xG) in Europe are just surpassed by Harry Kane, and his explosive counterattack speed is still the most devastating weapon in football.

With Mbappé leading the squad in search of their 15th Champions League trophy and creating the "most expensive wing duo in history" with Vinícius, Real Madrid's No. 9 Ballon d'Or path is full of "destiny."

Although these components are sufficient to set the media ablaze, hidden risks abound: Raphinha and Salah eclipse Mbappé's league statistics, and the "multi-core structure” of Real Madrid's locker room distorts his story of personal heroism.

Should he wish to be crowned with his first Ballon d'Or, Mbappé must present a magnificent performance like in the 2018 and 2022 World Cup finals. The potential Champions League semi-final against his former team Paris, if they go past Arsenal of course, could well be the stage destiny has prepared for him

Beyond the "Dual Kings Battle" between Raphinha and Salah, the 2025 Ballon d'Or event has grown even more mysterious with the inclusion of heavyweight star Harry Kane, who launched his bid for football's highest individual honour in a quite different manner.

Harry Kane joined Bayern Munich in 2023, and the shadows of the "no-trophy curse” have followed him. Two years later, though, the England captain has shown by his deeds that true legends never yield to fate.

Kane has scored 21 goals and given 7 assists in the first 23 Bundesliga games, as well as 9 goals in 10 Champions League games. His goal conversion rate of 25% far exceeds his 16.42 anticipated goals (xG), and his capacity to "turn the ordinary into the magical" makes every touch in the box a killer.

Kane has assumed the position of locker room leader at Bayern, redefining the function of a modern centre forward with precise long passes and selfless linking play..

While his calmness in pivotal situations—such as his three-goal haul in two legs over Leverkusen in the Round of 16—shows the instincts of a quality striker, Musiala and Olise have been freed by his ability to drop back and organise.

Bayern lead the Bundesliga by 8 points after 25 matches and will play Inter Milan in the Champions League quarter-finals.

Leading the squad to win the seventh Champions League title will not only break the "no-trophy curse" but also establish him as the "Mr Big Stage" to win the Ballon d'Or.

But Kane's Achilles's weakness is very clear: the competitive intensity and exposure of the Bundesliga are not as high as those of the Premier League and La Liga.

Thus, unless he can achieve the greatest comeback in the football world with the combined laurels of a Champions League victory and the tournament's top scorer, the Ballon d'Or judges would query whether a Bundesliga salad bowl is enough to win football's highest individual honour.

Lewandowski, at 36, is still creating the notion of "reverse ageing" at Camp Nou. The Polish striker is flourishing in the 24–25 season, leading the La Liga scoring chart with 21 goals in the first 25 La Liga games and 9 goals in the first 10 Champions League games.

His finishing skill is still at the highest, with his shooting conversion rate (23%) exactly matching the expected goals (xG). Lewandowski, a stabilising agent in the locker room, has maintained Barcelona's offensive baseline with experience and composure in the turbulence following Xavi's departure; his two decisive penalties against Benfica and the brace against Bayern in the Champions League group stage both highlighted the essence of the "big-game" player.

Still, Lewandowski's challenges are as clear as his genius. Barcelona are still fighting for the championship on three fronts, but the rise of Raphinha and Lamine Yamal has reduced his tactical weight and diverted public attention from him.

Ballon d'Or assessors may thus wonder if a 36-year-old veteran could be the team's "primary protagonist." Unless he can lead the team to the top as the MVP of the Champions League final or repeat the glory of the sextuple in 2020 with Bayern, the brilliance of his personal statistics may face difficulty competing with the story of the next generation.

Vinícius's 24-25 season is a quiet recovery from the disappointment of losing the Ballon d'Or to Rodri. Although his statistics of 10 goals and 7 assists in 23 La Liga matches and 4 goals in 9 Champions League matches are not as spectacular as Raphinha's, the Brazilian winger's importance is well above what the stats can summarise.

As the explosive point of Real Madrid's attack, his breakthrough efficiency directly decides the team's ceiling, with Ancelotti's style always retaining the potential of a "blitzkrieg" due to his presence.

Currently, Real Madrid, Barcelona and Atletico are neck and neck in La Liga and will see a face-off with Arsenal in the Champions League quarter-finals.

If Vinicius can reproduce the miracles of the 2022 knockout stage, he could be able to compensate for the "shortcomings" in his personal stats and impress the judges with decisive performance in big moments.

However, till then, his goal-scoring efficiency is not yet Ballon d'Or standards.

Despite the many detractors and talks of an underwhelming campaign, Haaland's greatness in the 2024–25 season is indisputable.

In the Champions League, he scored 8 goals in 9 matches and netted 21 goals in the first 28 matches of the Premier League—including two hat-tricks—bettering 99% of players globally.

With his shot accuracy percentage of 54.5% and 0.69 non-penalty expected goal value (npxG/90), the Norwegian is still the most accurate finishing machine in the football scene.

Still, Haaland's seemingly grim chances of a Ballon d'Or result from his so-called “mediocre” statistics. Normalising a benchmark of 40 goals per season has seen many begin to yearn for "superhuman moments" from him.

Furthermore, City's disastrous exit from the Champions League and their slide to fifth position in the Premier League have placed an asterisk on his name in the Ballon d'Or standings.

More importantly, Haaland's "penalty box predator" and Guardiola's possession-based approach have always subdued his superstar image, with his average touches per game (22.8) even lower than many goalkeepers.

Maybe Haaland needs a vacation, just like Ronaldo left Manchester United. But before that, his Ballon d'Or chances were just a mirror, reflecting the perpetual conundrum between data supremacy and team honours.

In the fierce winds of the Bosphorus Strait, a Nigerian attacker relentlessly breaches defences with unrivalled efficiency.

Osimhen's figures of 20 goals and four assists in the first 22 games in the Turkish Super League and six goals and one assist in seven games in the Europa League are backed by an astonishing 6.72 shots per game (Europe).

Thanks to 42.3% shot accuracy and a goal every 83 minutes, Galatasaray's offence has been reduced to a three-step procedure: "Pass → Osimhen → Goal."

This one-man demolition machination should naturally place him front and foremost in the Ballon d'Or discussion, but the "football backwater" reputation of the Turkish Super Lig and the early exit from the Europa League knockout stages instantly tarnish the brilliance of his 26 goals. His first truly dominating performance has been harshly attacked as a "bully of weak teams.”

Unless he joins the Premier League or La Liga this summer, Galatasaray's 26-year-old goal-scoring machine might never be free from the limitations of being a "star from a non-mainstream league,” even if he wins the Turkish League ahead of Mourinho's Fenerbahce.

While all of Europe is crazy over Raphinha and Salah, a 26-year-old Swedish striker named Viktor Gyökeres is defying all expectations with his explosive growth. He has scored 27 goals and 4 assists in the first 24 Portuguese Superliga games, as well as 6 goals in the first 8 Champions League games, including a hat-trick against Manchester City, making him one of Europe's most efficient forwards.

His most outstanding performance has, however, come at the national level, where he has scored 9 goals and 4 assists in 6 UEFA Nations League games for the Swedish national team, including a four-goal haul against Azerbaijan and a vital goal against Slovakia that guaranteed promotion, firmly ranking him at the top of the "Alipay + Global Scener List."

Given that he posted these figures in the presence of the red-hot England-based Isak, Gyökeres's ascent is a triumph for the traditional centre striker.

Despite his 190cm height, Gyökeres has excellent footwork and is very capable with his back to goal, and an ability to win possession in the penalty area that is reminiscent ofLewandowski's best years.

The sad truth of the Ballon d'Or, though, is that the Primeira Liga stage is too small. Having failed to replicate Mário Jardel's incredible 1999/20 UCL season with Porto, making a high-priced transfer to a top club in Europe's big five leagues will be Gyökeres' greatest chance at the Ballon d'Or.