Rodri's injury blow: What it means for Manchester City's title hopes
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Manchester City's 2024/25 title hope suffered a significant setback following Rodri's season-ending injury against Arsenal in one of matchday five fixtures.
The Spanish international ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament in the 20th minute after colliding with Thomas Partey and will spend the rest of the season in the recuperating room.
According to Guardiola after the player's surgery, "This season is over for him, unfortunately. It's a massive blow for us."
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This is undoubtedly bad news to Manchester City's supporters because the 28-year-old Spaniard has been a cornerstone of City's success, providing crucial defensive cover, orchestrating play from deep, and offering a calm presence in the heart of midfield.
They have already started manifesting cracks, conceding eight goals as of the final international break of 2024, the joint-most among clubs in the top 4 (tied with Chelsea).
The Sky Blues will surely miss his service at the Etihad, but how much will his absence affect their title challenge? Which other players can fill the void left by the midfield maestro, or could this injury influence Guardiola's activities in the January transfer market?
Here, ZonalSports discuss five possible replacements and City's chances of retaining the Premier League title without their reliable midfielder.
Rodri: The Heartbeat of Manchester City's Midfield
Since he arrived from Atlético Madrid in 2019, Rodri has established himself as an indispensable figure in Manchester City's star-studded lineup. The 2024 Euro Championship winner has been the fulcrum of Pep Guardiola's tactical masterplan, delivering an impressive all-round performance in the defensive part of the midfield.
Below is a comprehensive breakdown of what the Spaniard brings to the Etihad outfits:
Defensive anchor and composure
Thanks to his positioning and tactical awareness, the Spain international is always in the right place to intercept opposition attacks and break up play before it develops.
In the 2022/23 season, Rodri was the only Manchester City player with over 60 tackles in the Premier League (67), preventing the opposition from troubling the backline.
He also had the highest number of interceptions among City players (26) in the 2023/24 outing, three more than Manuel Akanji, who had 23. These incredible numbers highlight his defensive contributions and roles in City's dominance since his arrival.
In fact Manchester City this season have conceded two times more goals in the first seven games of this season compared to last season, keeping just one clean sheet in that period. It has been widely purported that this defensive frailty is due to Rodri failing to feature for more than 45 minutes in any game in 2024/25.
His calmness is another laudable attribute that distinguishes him from his contemporaries. He was booked 9 times (8 yellow and 1 red) in 34 league games, as he rarely commits fouls or engages in rash tackles that could trigger the referee's wrath.
The tall and physically imposing midfielder always takes his time before using his upper body strength to manoeuvre opponents off the ball.
Ball retention and distribution
Rodri's ability isn't limited to tackles and interceptions alone; he retains possession under pressure and distributes the ball efficiently. In the 2023/24 campaign, he wasn't only City's best ball-winning midfielder but also one of their best passers (second behind Kevin De Bruyne).
His short and precise passes helped City control many matches, while his long-range passing accuracy boosted the team's quick transitions from defence to offence.
Tactical flexibility
Tactical flexibility and versatility are hallmarks of a modern-day defensive player, and Rodri doesn't lack in that aspect, having featured in multiple roles and positions. Interestingly, the energetic star performed as a central defender (5), right back (7), defensive midfielder (34), and centre midfielder (4) in the last 50 games before the injury.
Goal contributions
Though Rodri is primarily known for his defensive and passing qualities, his offensive prowess can't be overlooked, as he was involved in 8.4 attacking sequences per 90 minutes in the 2023/24 season, according to Opta.
Since joining the Citizens, he has recorded 30 assists and 26 goals, including the crucial title-winning goal in the 2023 Champions League final against Inter Milan.
Talking of victories, Opta reported that City had won 74.1% of their 174 Premier League matches with Rodri in the team, accumulating 413 points. Unsurprisingly, their points-per-match drops from 2.37 down to 1.9, and their loss rate jumps from 10.9% to 33.3% when he is unavailable.
How Rodri's absence could affect Manchester City's title ambitions
Losing Rodri to injury could affect City's performance and their pursuit of domestic and European glory due to the following reasons:
Defensive vulnerability
Rodri excels in breaking up play and protecting the backline. However, his absence could expose the city's backline to increased pressure and direct attacks from the opposition.
They will also miss the Spaniard's physicality and aerial ability when defending corners and free kicks, making them more vulnerable in set-piece situations.
Midfield control
Rodri's composure and pressing resistance in the middle of the park have helped the team regain and keep possession on countless occasions this season. The image below (against Chelsea) perfectly shows how much the Premier League Champions relied on the player to regain the ball.
Hence, like in the defence, City's dominance in the middle of the park could be compromised as a result of the Spaniard's absence.
Mental impact
Having enjoyed Rodri's reassuring presence for many seasons, his absence might have had some psychological effects on the team in the early days.
The defenders might feel less secure without Rodri's organisation, on-field leadership, and reassuring performance.
Key Replacements: Who can fill Rodri's shoes in midfield?
Rodri's injury has created a significant void in Manchester City's midfield that Guardiola must fill to maintain the team's balance and effectiveness. Interestingly, some fringe players are willing to grab this opportunity; they include:
Mateo Kovačić
Though the box-to-box midfielder isn't Rodri's like-for-like replacement, Kovačić possesses the tactical discipline and experience needed to thrive in Guardiola's system.
The former Real Madrid and Chelsea star could help maintain City's possession game but might leave them more vulnerable defensively due to his poor defensive ability.
Nonetheless, his ability to progress the ball could compensate for his lack of defensive strength. Meanwhile, the Croatian midfielder seems to be Guardiola's preferred candidate, having replaced Rodri during the draw with Arsenal.
Kovačić appears to have stepped up in his last three games for the Cityzens before the international break, showing his playmaking brilliance by creating the most chances against Arsenal, displaying grit by making the most tackles against Newcastle, and proving a clutch player against Fulham with two crucial goals.
Matheus Nunes
Considering his impressive spell at Sporting Lisbon and Wolves, Matheus Nunes was tipped for success, but that hasn't been the case. The Portuguese international has struggled to break into Guardiola's team due to intense competition and the manager's pattern of play.
He has played just 20 League games for City since his celebrated £53 million move from Wolves.
Nevertheless, Rodri's injury has created another opportunity for the forgotten midfielder, although he isn't a like-for-like replacement for Rodri.
John Stones
The former Everton defender is used to the midfield terrain, having featured as a midfielder under Guardiola. John Stones was flawless against Inter Milan in the Champions League final, providing a strong shield for the three-man defence of Manuel Akanji, Dias, and Ake.
Now that Rodri is out, the England international might be draughted into midfield to partner Bernardo Silva and Gundogan.
However, moving him higher up the pitch might weaken City's defence, which might create a new headache for the reigning Premier League winners.
Bernardo Silva
The extremely versatile Portuguese star is known for his ability to retain possession, high work rate, and pressing ability, making him a perfect replacement for the injured Rodri.
Silva's technical skills and work rate could help City dominate possession and provide many goalscoring opportunities, but he might struggle with the defensive aspects of Rodri's role.
Rico Lewis
The 19-year-old fullback is fast becoming a household name at the Etihad Stadium, having progressed through the ranks from the City Academy.
The promising young talent represents a bold option that aligns with Guardiola's trust in youth and might get the nod over other available options.
Having played in the midfield against Arsenal and RB Leipzig in the 2023/2024 season, Lewis could be converted into a defensive midfielder before the winter transfer window.
However, asking him to fill Rodri's shoes in crucial matches could be a significant risk due to his little experience in the role.
Tactical adjustments Guardiola could make
Guardiola has proven to be a tactical maestro who can tweak his tactics and re-arrange his players to produce the desired result. Therefore, he might opt for a combination of these players or a total system change to alter the effects of Rodri's absence.
He might continue with a 3-4-3 double pivot system, pairing Kovačić and Silva to share defensive duties while Gundogan and Savinho take over the creative midfield role before De Bruyne returns from injury.
Meanwhile, John Stones or any of the possible replacements could feature in the setup.
Alternatively, the former Barcelona manager could adopt the inverted full-backs approach, which requires defenders like Kyle Walker and Lewis to provide additional cover and build-up options by stepping into midfield whenever they have the ball.
Meanwhile, switching to a 3-2-4-1 formation isn't totally out of place, as it will provide more defensive stability while maintaining midfield control.
Dias (or Stones), Akanji, and Gvardiol (or Ake) to be at the heart of defense, while Silva and Kovačić (or Nunes) will provide the strong cover. De Bruyne, Gundogan(or Foden), Doku, and Savinho could occupy the midfield while Haaland will complete the starting lineup.
Rodri’s absence: Will City’s depth be enough to retain the title?
Though Rodri's absence is a significant setback to City's title ambitions, they have a squad depth that can cope without the Spanish midfielder regardless of the competition.
Nonetheless, Guardiola will need to leverage his tactical acumen while fringe players like Lewis and Mateo Kovačić must step up significantly.
With just six games played so far (at the time of publication), the true impact of Rodri's injury on the club's title hopes will become apparent in the coming months.
If City can maintain their form and results throughout the first half of the season, it will be a testament to their squad depth and Guardiola's tactical flexibility.
However, any drop in points (like we saw against Newcastle) could open the door for Arsenal and Liverpool in what promises to be a fiercely competitive title race.